Changelog

The homepage is refreshed to reflect the five-ledger architecture. The masthead reads "The AI economy, layer by layer." with a tagline that names every ledger in causal order ("Capital in. Compute spent. Power drawn. Tokens out. Revenue back. Five ledgers, one system."), replacing the prior three-ledger framing.

A new hero visual — The AI “$” Stack — replaces the previous tile strip and the four-step narrative-flow loop. Five horizontal pill bars descend in size by 2025 figure: Capex $330B → Usage $164B (notional at OpenRouter median output rate) → Compute $43B → Power $25B → Apps Revenue $17B. Each bar links through to its ledger; Power carries an explicit Tier 3 placeholder pill until v3 hardens.

The Apps Revenue figure published on the homepage is restated to the 2025 cohort sum-of-quarterlies basis ($17B), aligning with the Revenue Ledger and the Compute Ledger's Layer Stack. The hook one-liner is now Compute-anchored — $2.50 of compute spend stands behind every $1 of customer-paid AI Apps Revenue. Several editorial sentences (homepage card commentary, hero hook sub-line, sub-headers on the Compute Ledger page) were trimmed at the same time so ledger surfaces stay methodology-first.

The Bear / Base / Bull scenario toggle is retired from the homepage.

The Compute Ledger goes live as the fourth Ledger surface, answering "what hyperscalers and neoclouds earned from AI compute in 2025." Built around a three-segment model: frontier-lab compute — what model labs (OpenAI, Anthropic, Mistral and others) paid external compute providers — at ~79% of the dollar; AI workload compute — the rest of business AI demand running on hyperscaler and neocloud infrastructure; and hosted model APIs — Bedrock, Vertex, Foundry and the equivalents.

The methodology iterated through four refinements before ship: (1) bucket decomposition with a Copilot scope-out and a pass-through correction to avoid double-counting flow that hyperscalers recognise from labs they themselves fund; (2) segment sizing correction following Andy Jassy's Q1 2026 commentary, taking AMZN AI compute from a top-down $18B to a bottom-up $10B and GCP from $18B to $7B; (3) a quarterly trajectory back-cast that uses Q4 2025 ≈ Q1 2026 run-rate where issuers haven't yet published; (4) a switch to the sum-of-quarterlies basis for the 2025 calendar so the year doesn't drop on Q4 → Q1 methodology changes.

Published 2025 total: $43.07B. The page also introduces the Layer Stack — a four-row proportional bar showing Apps Revenue ↔ Compute ↔ Silicon ↔ Power at canonical 2025 dollars.

The Revenue Ledger's published headline figure is now the 2025 cohort sum-of-quarterlies total ($17.36B). This is the same cohort that flows through to the homepage Apps Revenue card, The AI “$” Stack hero, and the Compute Ledger's Layer Stack — so the figure quoted on every public surface lines up.

The cumulative-since-2023 framing ($22B) that previously appeared in the homepage hero and meta tags is retired; the Revenue Sankey continues to publish per-provider quarterly flows on the same cohort scope (rebalanced 3 May, see entry below). The change is a framing alignment — provider-level data and the Sankey methodology are unchanged.

The Follow the Dollar Sankey now derives every published value from our underlying entity database, applying the same documented methodology to every provider rather than hand-curating each one. Previously, per-provider customer revenue and investor subsidy were calculated separately and the chart was rebalanced manually whenever an input changed.

The methodological shift: investor subsidy now functions as a balancing figure. When customer revenue is revised — for example, when stronger data arrives for a provider's reported revenue — the chart holds total provider value steady (anchored to documented inference costs and operating losses) and adjusts the investor subsidy to keep the Sankey balanced. Future revenue revisions will visibly shift the customer-versus-investor split for each provider without changing the provider's overall flow size.

Specific changes published in this update:

OpenAI: Customer revenue revised $7.65B → $9.31B (+22%). Provider total holds at $13.65B; investor subsidy correspondingly adjusts $5.20B → $4.34B. The methodology change in action.

Google (Gemini): Customer revenue $2.00B → $2.25B; provider total $2.50B → $2.93B (+17%). Lower data depth than OpenAI — no published operating loss available yet, so methodology-derived estimates apply throughout. Worth flagging in case more granular Google AI revenue data lands.

Anthropic: Provider total $7.71B → $7.30B (−5.3%). Small methodology-driven adjustment.

Five smaller providers (DeepSeek, Mistral, xAI, Minimax, Moonshot) now appear collapsed into a single "Other Model Providers" node at $1.33B combined. Each is preserved individually in the provenance trail; the aggregation rule keeps the chart readable as more providers enter the registry.

For full methodology and per-provider source classifications, see methodology.

An entity directory now lists all 103 tracked entities with their current snapshot, best-source confidence, and a "qualifies for detail page" flag based on a data threshold (≥3 fields, ≥medium confidence, ≥1 provenance entry). 57 of 103 qualify at the default threshold, and an auto-generated detail page appears under companies/<slug>.html whenever an entity crosses the threshold.

The AI Ledger v2 launches. We've replaced the single token-centric dashboard with three interlocking ledgers — Capital, Revenue, Usage — each answering a different question about the same underlying economy. The numbers now carry explicit provenance tiers (1A–3C) and can be viewed under Bear, Base, or Bull assumptions via the top-right toggle. A fourth ledger tracking physical power and grid constraints is coming in v3.

CapEx revised to $745B following Platformonomics cross-check. Previously $770B. The $25B delta came from double-counting non-AI networking spend in hyperscaler totals.

Provenance tier system (1A through 4) applied to all Sankey nodes. Every flow and stock in the Capital Ledger now carries an explicit data-quality tag.

Revenue Sankey fully rebalanced from consensus sources. All flows verified against entity-level filings. Total system revenue: $26.86B quarterly.

Entity-level revenue figures refreshed from earnings calls and analyst commentary across 32 source records. Higher-tier sources (10-K filings, IR disclosures) take precedence over commentary and podcast estimates.